Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 52.322061 57.973675 64.352407 72.166824 81.597967 92.769349 107.249272
2025-02-09 44.946522 52.322936 61.366559 73.569082 90.114046 112.623455 147.317494
2025-02-16 40.160824 48.115539 58.362716 73.059223 94.613889 127.067467 184.674360
2025-02-23 36.730919 44.956363 55.956215 72.506741 98.402989 141.020257 227.687267
2025-03-02 33.725837 41.926936 53.202067 70.797524 99.775045 151.139577 269.360059
2025-03-09 31.427388 39.590616 51.083764 69.604566 101.557526 162.345791 321.373230
2025-03-16 28.959331 36.787190 47.975888 66.384285 99.137822 164.562213 352.786498
2025-03-23 28.291525 36.476302 48.496667 69.039560 107.778044 192.979229 494.555164
2025-03-30 26.935775 35.043940 47.152103 68.345182 109.843923 207.322278 612.145010
2025-04-06 25.633423 33.595918 45.650115 67.171698 110.685093 219.022228 745.403141
2025-04-13 24.094018 31.699119 43.294526 64.214432 107.242081 217.859842 808.244090
2025-04-20 23.881193 31.798948 44.146442 67.184343 117.317414 261.261093 1381.547913
2025-04-27 23.711202 32.001154 45.264036 70.994928 130.941644 329.951311 3457.588130
2025-05-04 23.070264 31.424502 45.028392 72.158288 138.607708 386.303630 10516.416899
2025-05-11 22.231333 30.473572 44.059525 71.681630 141.818933 427.645886 59512.736729
2025-05-18 21.456120 29.579871 43.120041 71.143947 144.764471 472.786681 NaN
2025-05-25 20.582172 28.478662 41.733803 69.485117 144.038600 497.324458 NaN
2025-06-01 19.844322 27.566577 40.629822 68.326809 144.612574 532.978106 NaN
2025-06-08 18.885960 26.249076 38.717618 65.198400 138.380347 514.668264 NaN
2025-06-15 18.755008 26.303813 39.316050 67.778102 151.294805 669.961478 NaN
2025-06-22 18.213904 25.640900 38.538468 67.103650 153.137482 737.755654 NaN
2025-06-29 17.649288 24.914996 37.602009 65.963578 153.088395 789.247881 NaN
2025-07-06 16.904969 23.857521 35.990908 63.089035 146.163532 748.181353 NaN